The dice has been rolled by the O'Callaghan family at Marchagee in the Mid West, sowing canola into recently wet soil from 15 millimetres of rain.
It is a gamble to plant when it is so dry, either before rain or into moisture if there is no further rain received in the next four weeks.
"We had sown 600 hectares of 4520P and Nuseed Emu TruFlex before the rain - starting on April 4 - and it is now germinating," said Michael O'Callaghan.
"When we got that bit of rain on April 12, we then went like cut snakes and planted another 500ha of canola.
"Either this will be the best-ever decision (if it rains soon) or the biggest mistake of 2024.
"We will now need a decent rain by the middle of May to keep it growing."
Mr O'Callaghan, who farms with wife Julia, said the April 12 rain had not been forecast and was a great surprise.
"The problem is the soil is so dry underneath," he said.
"It is the driest subsoil down to 700mm - and even to one metre - that I have ever seen.
"If we go back as far as October 2022, we haven't had much rain since then."
The O'Callaghans only recorded 120-160mm of rain for the whole of 2023 and almost no summer rain for 2023-24.
Mr O'Callaghan said last year was a total disaster, but they did get some crop off.
He said in nearby Coorow, it was the second driest year since 1900 and Marchagee followed the same trend.
This week, the O'Callaghans are sowing Calibre wheat and they will continue with their 6000ha wheat program until the next 100 per cent forecasted rain, when they will switch back to canola planting.
"If it gets too late, we will drop any more canola out of the system," Mr O'Callaghan said.
He said they were running a Morris Quantum air seeder and two Morris C2 Contour seeder bars with Morris tanks.
There have been some issues sourcing fertiliser.
For the canola, the O'Callaghans are using an 80 per cent Agras, 20pc MOP mix and the wheat is getting 70pc Agras and 30pc urea.
From this week, they are increasing the hours spent seeding from 14 to 20 to get through the cropping program in a timely manner.
Mr O'Callaghan said historically Marchagee had been a reliable cropping area, but it had been in a cycle of poor seasons in recent years.
"We have had to change our practices to adapt," he said.
"We now need to play the seasons big time.
"For example, if the season doesn't break at a timing that will give us a season long enough before the heat in September, we will likely drop back total sowing to about 60pc of what we planned."
High input costs were making cropping even more unreliable, according to Mr O'Callaghan.
"In the past six years, a recent report by the WA Grains Group showed input costs have gone up by 72pc," he said.
"Even though fertiliser prices have come back a bit, this has been from extreme highs.
"And in the meantime, machinery, insurance, labour and fuel costs have all gone up massively.
"The margins are so tight that you really do need to play the season.
"We have a good team here with Tino, Taylor and Lorne - plus the normal contingent from Europe - and, while everyone is here, we will keep seeding for at least the next four weeks.
"Then some big decisions will need to be made."
